Rechnerpilot Calculator

Withdrawal Plan Calculator

Calculate how long your capital lasts, how much you can withdraw or how much starting capital is needed – period-accurate, in advance/in arrears, with remaining capital, inflation, additional income and a Monte Carlo simulation.

Available

Inputs

Enter values

Live

Calculate durationHow long does my capital last?

Additional income (e.g. pension)

Additional income that covers part of your withdrawal need. No pension entitlements are calculated — each income is an amount you enter yourself.

0/3

Starting capital

€

Available capital at the start of the withdrawal.

Withdrawal per interval

€

Regular withdrawal in the first year.

Withdrawal interval

How often is money withdrawn?

Withdrawal timing

In advance = start of period, in arrears = end of period.

Expected return p.a.

Expected performance of the capital (scenario assumption).

Load example

For illustration only – your own calculation is what counts.

Explanation

How Withdrawal Plan Calculator works

The withdrawal plan calculator shows how assets develop when money is regularly withdrawn from them – for example in retirement. All three questions (duration, possible withdrawal, required starting capital) are based on the same period-accurate calculation; there are no separate approximation formulas per mode.

Period-accurate returnr_periode = (1 + r_jahr)^(1/periods) − 1

The return per withdrawal period is derived from the effective annual return. With monthly withdrawals that is twelve periods per year – and over the year this yields exactly the annual return entered, not an overestimated approximation.

The key is the balance between withdrawal and return: if the withdrawal is below the capital-preserving withdrawal, the capital grows despite the withdrawal and is not depleted. If it is above, the substance is eroded, and the calculator determines the remaining term. Additional income (e.g. a pension) reduces the amount that the portfolio itself has to bear.

Knowledge

Understanding capital withdrawal

Why timing, periodization and return fluctuations determine the success of a withdrawal plan.

A withdrawal plan lives on the interplay of three variables: the capital, the withdrawal amount and the return. The capital-preserving withdrawal is the threshold above which the substance is eroded – below it the assets are maintained or grow, above it they are depleted.

Timing matters: withdrawals in advance deplete somewhat faster than those in arrears, because the withdrawn money no longer generates returns.
Periodization done right: the periodic return follows from (1 + annual return)^(1/periods) − 1, not from annual return ÷ periods.
Inflation ≠ withdrawal increase: one only adjusts purchasing power, the other increases the amount actually withdrawn.
Sequence-of-returns risk: weak returns at the start of the withdrawal are more dangerous than the same returns at the end.
Additional income relieves the portfolio: pensions or other cash flows cover part of the need.

The often-cited "4% rule" goes back to the studies by William Bengen (1994) and the so-called Trinity study (1998). Simplified, it states that an initial withdrawal of around 4% of the assets, adjusted annually for inflation, historically rarely led to premature capital depletion over 30 years. It is a rough rule of thumb from the US market with fluctuating returns – no guarantee and no substitute for your own simulation with your own assumptions.

Practice

Practical examples

For illustration only – your own calculation is what counts.

How long do 500,000 euros last?

500,000 euros capital, 2,000 euros monthly withdrawal (in advance) at 4% expected return. How long does the money last?

Result: The capital lasts about 43 years. Over this time roughly 1,035,090 euros are withdrawn; of that, returns contribute around 535,090 euros. For comparison: a withdrawal of around 1,632 euros per month would preserve the capital permanently.

How much can I withdraw over 30 years?

300,000 euros are to be withdrawn monthly (in advance) over 30 years, at 5% expected return and full capital depletion. How high may the withdrawal be?

Result: Around 1,584 euros can be withdrawn per month. Over 30 years, about 570,137 euros are withdrawn, of which around 270,137 euros come from returns; at the end the capital is fully depleted.

Starting capital for 1,500 euros over 25 years

1,500 euros monthly withdrawal (in advance) over 25 years at 4% return and full depletion. How much starting capital is needed?

Result: A starting capital of around 287,254 euros is needed. In total, 450,000 euros are withdrawn; the difference of around 162,746 euros comes from the returns.

Capital preservation instead of depletion

500,000 euros, but only 1,200 euros monthly withdrawal at 4% return. Does that last permanently?

Result: The capital is not depleted within the observation horizon: the withdrawal of 1,200 euros per month is below the capital-preserving withdrawal of around 1,632 euros per month, so the returns cover the withdrawals permanently. The calculator then does not invent an artificial term, but explicitly indicates this state.

The 4% rule put to the test

1,000,000 euros, 40,000 euros annual withdrawal (that is 4% of the starting capital) at 5% expected return. Does the much-cited 4% rule hold?

Result: At a constant 5% return the capital is not depleted — the capital-preserving withdrawal would be around 47,619 euros per year, well above the 4% (40,000 euros). Important: the 4% rule comes from historical studies with fluctuating returns and inflation adjustment. Anyone who wants to assess the risk honestly should use the Monte Carlo simulation.

Withdrawal alongside the state pension

200,000 euros capital, 2,500 euros monthly need, of which 1,500 euros is covered by the state pension (from now on). At 4% return — how long does the portfolio last for the gap?

Result: The portfolio only has to cover the monthly gap of 1,000 euros (2,500 euros need minus 1,500 euros pension) and lasts about 27 years for that. In total, the income contributes 486,000 euros to the need; around 323,496 euros are withdrawn from the portfolio. The pension is treated here as a generic cash flow — no pension calculation takes place.

With remaining capital and an inflation view

400,000 euros, 30 years monthly withdrawal (in advance) at 4% return, but 100,000 euros should remain at the end as inheritance. Additionally the purchasing power at 2% inflation.

Result: Around 1,742 euros can be withdrawn per month, with the desired remaining capital of 100,000 euros left at the end. In today's purchasing power (2% inflation), however, these 100,000 euros are worth only around 55,200 euros — an effect that is noticeable over long terms.

Making the sequence-of-returns risk visible

The plan from example 2 (300,000 euros, 30 years, 5% return, around 1,584 euros per month) looks, on paper, as if it would add up exactly. What happens when the returns fluctuate (15% volatility)?

Result: Deterministically, the plan just about adds up (capital at zero at the end). Under fluctuating returns the picture flips: in the simulation only around 34% of the paths reach the goal, in around 66% the capital is depleted prematurely. The reason is the sequence-of-returns risk — weak years at the start of the withdrawal phase have a disproportionate effect. A deterministic single-point calculation alone is not enough for retirement planning.

Notes

Common mistakes

Treating a single return assumption as certain
A constant return makes a plan add up exactly, while in reality, with fluctuating prices, it often fails. Weak years right at the start of the withdrawal (sequence-of-returns risk) are especially dangerous.
Calculate several return scenarios and additionally use the Monte Carlo simulation to see the success probability and depletion rate.
Ignoring inflation in the withdrawal phase
A fixed nominal withdrawal loses considerable purchasing power over decades. 2,000 euros today are worth only around 1,220 euros in 25 years at 2% inflation.
Enable the purchasing-power display and, if necessary, plan a withdrawal increase to maintain purchasing power.
Simply dividing the annual return by twelve
The approximation "annual rate ÷ 12" slightly overestimates the return and adds up over long terms.
The calculator derives the periodic return correctly from the effective annual return – no manual conversion needed.
Confusing pre-tax and after-tax amounts
All amounts in the calculator are before tax. The actually available withdrawal can be lower after capital gains tax or pension taxation.
Understand the withdrawal as a gross requirement and use the specialized tax calculators for the tax effect.
Choosing the planning horizon too short
Planning only up to the statistical life expectancy can lead to underestimating longevity risk. Life expectancy is an average value – some people live considerably longer.
Plan a safety buffer or check in duration mode whether the capital also lasts for a longer lifespan.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

What does the withdrawal plan calculator compute?

It answers three questions with the same calculation basis: How long does existing capital last at a given withdrawal (mode "duration")? How much can be withdrawn over a fixed term (mode "withdrawal")? And how much starting capital is needed for a desired withdrawal (mode "starting capital")? In addition, it shows the capital-preserving withdrawal, the returns, the capital trajectory and – optionally – remaining capital, inflation, additional income and a Monte Carlo simulation.

What do "in advance" and "in arrears" mean?

In advance means the withdrawal takes place at the start of each period (e.g. at the beginning of the month), before the returns of the period accrue. In arrears means at the end of the period. The timing is deliberately selectable and not a hidden assumption, because it noticeably affects the result: withdrawals in advance deplete the capital somewhat faster, because the withdrawn amount no longer generates returns during the current period.

How is the calculation period-accurate – is the annual rate simply divided by 12?

No. The periodic return is derived from the effective annual return: r_periode = (1 + r_jahr)^(1/periods) − 1. This is mathematically correct and, with twelve monthly periods over the year, yields exactly the annual return entered. The simple approximation "annual rate ÷ 12" would slightly overestimate the return.

What is the difference between inflation and withdrawal increase?

These are two separate things. The withdrawal increase raises the amount actually withdrawn each year by a fixed percentage – so the money you really take out grows. Inflation, on the other hand, does not change the withdrawal; it only serves to additionally display the capital and final value in today's purchasing power. Both can be set independently of each other.

What happens if the capital is never depleted?

Then the calculator does not invent an artificial term. If the withdrawal is below the capital-preserving withdrawal (roughly: capital times periodic return), the returns cover the withdrawals permanently. In this case the calculator explicitly indicates that the capital is not depleted within the observation horizon – capital preservation is thus an honest, stated possibility, not a guarantee.

How does the Monte Carlo simulation work?

Instead of a constant return, many possible return paths are calculated. The statistical model is a geometric Brownian motion (lognormally distributed returns), controlled via the expected return and the volatility. The result is a success probability, a depletion rate and a range of possible capital trajectories. The simulation uses a fixed random seed and is therefore reproducible – the same inputs yield the same results, even when sharing via link. Above all, it makes the sequence-of-returns risk visible: weak years at the start of the withdrawal have a disproportionately strong effect.

Can I factor in my state pension?

Yes, but as a generic cash flow, not as a pension calculation. Under "Additional income" you enter an amount, an interval, a start (and optionally an end) and an annual increase. This income covers the withdrawal need; only the remaining gap is withdrawn from the portfolio. This calculator does not determine how high your actual statutory pension will be.

Are taxes taken into account?

No. The withdrawal plan calculator deliberately calculates before tax – all amounts (withdrawal, income, remaining capital) are gross values. A sound taxation of capital withdrawals depends heavily on the individual case (capital gains tax on gains, partial exemption, allowances, pension taxation). Instead of building in half a tax engine here, the calculator honestly refers to specialized tax calculators. For the pure question "How long does my capital last?" the pre-tax view is transparent and traceable.

Does the calculator use real historical stock market data?

By default, no. The calculator works with an assumed return (deterministic) or a stochastic model (Monte Carlo). A historical backtest against real, chronological return sequences is technically prepared, but requires a licensed, verifiable data series. As long as no such source with clarified license and origin is integrated, no market data is deliberately invented – the backtest remains fail-closed.

Limits

Limitations

Constant return: the standard mode uses a constant annual return. Real prices fluctuate – use the Monte Carlo simulation to assess the range and the sequence-of-returns risk.
Before tax: all amounts are gross values. Taxes (e.g. capital gains tax, pension taxation) are deliberately not included and depend on the individual case.
No historical backtest in V1: a test against real historical return sequences is technically prepared, but only meaningful with a licensed, verifiable data series. Without such a source, no market data is deliberately invented.
No investment or tax advice: the results serve as orientation and do not replace individual advice.

Sources

Sources and references

Statistisches Bundesamt – Sterbetafeln und LebenserwartungStatistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Official data on life expectancy as a neutral basis for choosing a realistic planning horizon in the withdrawal phase.
View sourceRetrieved: 09/22/2026 · Verified on: 09/22/2026 · Primary source
Deutsche Bundesbank – Geld- und KapitalmärkteDeutsche Bundesbank
Official capital market statistics as a neutral reference for classifying return assumptions.
View sourceRetrieved: 09/22/2026 · Verified on: 09/22/2026 · Primary source
Bengen, W. P. (1994): Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical DataJournal of Financial Planning
Original work of the "4% rule": analysis of safe withdrawal rates based on historical US return sequences. A methodological reference, not to be understood as a forecast.
Retrieved: 09/22/2026 · Verified on: 09/22/2026
Cooley, Hubbard, Walz (1998): Retirement Savings – Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable (Trinity-Studie)AAII Journal / Trinity University
Well-known follow-up study on the sustainability of withdrawal rates across various portfolio mixes and time periods.
View sourceRetrieved: 09/22/2026 · Verified on: 09/22/2026

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